In its updated budget bill, the government said it expects GDP to contract one percent this year, abandoning the 1.3 percent growth target.
ITALY
The Italian economy, which the Bank of Italy originally expected to grow by around 0.5 percent this year, is now expected to contract by 3 percent or more, depending on how long the Italian outbreak of the virus lasts and how severe it becomes.
The General Confederation of Italian Industry (Confindustria) said on Thursday that industrial production "in the first quarter of 2020 is expected to contract by 5.4 percent, the largest drop in the past 11 years."
Confindustria analysts said that "the impact of COVID-19 and the measures to contain the infection have been devastating in March, when (industrial) activities decreased by 16.6 percent compared to February, rolling the production index back to the levels of 42 years ago."
Confindustria said this was due to the "closure of about 60 percent of (Italy's) manufacturing industries" in order to contain the pandemic.
In a separate statement on Thursday, Confindustria noted that if "the acute phase of the health emergency ends in May 2020 and production resumes gradually between the end of April and the end of June, (we) estimate that gross domestic product (GDP) in Italy will fall by 10 percent in the first two quarters compared to the end of 2019. On average for 2020, GDP will drop 6 percent."
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