该研究的一次场景模拟预测,在没有疫苗或有效治疗方法的情况下,新冠肺炎疫情可能会在2025年再度袭来。
Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-author of the study, said: “Infections spread when there are two things: infected people and susceptible people. Unless there is some enormously larger amount of herd immunity than we’re aware of … the majority of the population is still susceptible.
研究报告的合著者之一、哈佛大学流行病学教授马克·利普斯蒂奇说:“两个因素会引发传染病的传播:被感染者和易感染者。除非群体免疫的人群比我们所知道的大得多……否则,大多数人口都仍是易感染者。”
herd immunity: 群体免疫
"Predicting the end of the pandemic in the summer [of 2020] is not consistent with what we know about the spread of infections.”
“认为疫情将在2020年夏天结束的预测不符合我们对于疫情传播的了解。”
New treatments, a vaccine, or increasing critical care capacity could alleviate the need for stringent physical distancing, according to the paper. “But in the absence of these, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022,” the authors conclude.
这份研究报告指出,新的疗法、疫苗或急救护理能力的提高可以缓解对严格隔离措施的需求,但是作者总结道:“如果上述的这些都没有的话,监控和间歇性的隔离措施可能将持续到2022年。”
【专家预测:针对新冠疫情的隔离措施可能要持续到2022年】相关文章:
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