As the deficit reduction debate drags on, talk is growing in Washington about allowing the US to go over the fiscal cliff, triggering $600bn of spending cuts and tax increases in the new year. Some are suggesting that doing so would not be too damaging to the economy. Or even that it would be a good tactical move, providing the new Congress with an incentive to reach a significant budget accord.
就在各界继续就减赤方案展开辩论之际,有关听由美国跌落财政悬崖的言论在华盛顿逐渐升温,这意味着新一年的减支和增税规模将达到6000亿美元。有人认为,听由美国跌落财政悬崖不会对经济造成太具破坏性的影响。他们甚至认为,听由美国跌落财政悬崖是一种颇具策略的做法,将令新一届美国国会有动力去达成重大预算协议。
Such thinking seriously underestimates the cost of going over the cliff. The willingness to contemplate failure is perhaps understandable. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that while the economy would shrink at an annualised rate of 1.3 per cent during the first half of next year were the cliff not averted, growth would rebound to 2.3 per cent in the second half of 2013.
这种看法严重低估了跌落财政悬崖可能带来的成本。各界有兴趣考量跌落财政悬崖的潜在后果,这或许可以理解。美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)的测算结果显示,如果未能避开财政悬崖,来年上半年美国经济的年化增长率将为负1.3%,但2013年下半年经济增速将反弹至2.3%。
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