研究报告的合著者之一、哈佛大学流行病学教授马克·利普斯蒂奇说:“两个因素会引发传染病的传播:被感染者和易感染者。除非群体免疫的人群比我们所知道的大得多……否则,大多数人口都仍是易感染者。”
"Predicting the end of the pandemic in the summer [of 2020] is not consistent with what we know about the spread of infections."
“认为疫情将在2020年夏天结束的预测不符合我们对于疫情传播的了解。”
New treatments, a vaccine, or increasing critical care capacity could alleviate the need for stringent physical distancing, according to the paper. "But in the absence of these, surveillance and intermittent distancing may need to be maintained into 2022," the authors conclude.
这份研究报告指出,新的疗法、疫苗或急救护理能力的提高可以缓解对严格隔离措施的需求,但是作者总结道:“如果上述的这些都没有的话,监控和间歇性的隔离措施可能将持续到2022年。”
The overall numbers of cases in the next five years, and the level of distancing required, were found to depend crucially on the overall current levels of infection and whether all those who are infected gain immunity and, if so, for how long. The authors cautioned that these are big unknowns and that a precise prediction of the long-term dynamics is not possible.
研究发现,未来五年的病例总数和所需的隔离水平很大程度上地取决于目前总体的感染水平以及被感染者是否都能获得免疫力,如果获得了免疫力,这种免疫力可以持续多久。作者警告称,这些都是很大的未知因素,因此准确预测疫情长期发展态势是不可能的。
【针对新冠疫情的隔离措施可能要持续到2022年】相关文章:
★ Netflix热映陈晓卿最新美食纪录片,千万别饿着肚子看
最新
2020-09-15
2020-09-15
2020-09-15
2020-09-15
2020-09-15
2020-09-15