降息能否推高中国股市 How have Chinese investors responded to rate cuts_时事

降息能否推高中国股市 How have Chinese investors responded to rate cuts

The PBoC has previously cut rates in this cycle on weaker economic data, but this weekend'sepisode is more about market confidence.

这轮周期中，中国央行此前降息的动机都源自较疲软的经济数据。然而，上周末的降息动机，更多地是出自提振市场信心的需要。

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch expect the cuts to "temporarily halt a possible crashin the market", as if the government did not take action, margin calls would force leveragedpositions to be unwound, causing capitulation. But this could all be a band-aid. The bankcontinued:“Short term bounce aside, we doubt that the latest cuts will trigger any sustainedrally. As Chart 1 shows, this is the the 4th round of major PBoC actions to support the marketsince Nov 2014 (Feb/Mar & Apr/May being the other two) & each subsequent round'simpact had diminished. By now, very few investors harbour any doubt about thegovernment's desire to see the market up. But recent inflows into the market had proveninsufficient to offset outflows & push the market higher.

美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)分析师预计，此次降息会“暂时遏止可能出现的市场崩盘，因为如果政府不采取措施，追加保证金的通知就会迫使杠杆头寸平仓，引发抛售。不过，这些可能都只是权宜之计。该行接着说：“除了短期反弹以外，我们不认为这次降息会引发任何持续的反弹，如图表所示，这是2014年11月以来中国央行第四次大举托市。到目前为止，很少有投资者怀疑中国政府希望看到牛市。不过，事实证明，最近流入股市的资金不足以抵消资金外流，也不足以推高股市。

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