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新兴市场开始分化

全球金融危机主要是富国的危机，而投资者证明了自己能够区分有直接风险敞口和没有直接风险敞口的新兴市场。与欧元挂钩、银行业与欧元区联系紧密的波罗的海各国，遭受的压力甚至比拥有自己的货币、债务与GDP之比很低的波兰等临近欧元区的国家要大得多。

More recent evidence is tentatively positive for the differentiators. During the falls in EMcurrencies before the PBoC disrupted markets by depreciating the renminbi this month, therewas some evidence of discrimination based on fundamentals. Currencies performed betteragainst the dollar if their economies were less dependent on short-term capital inflows. TheIndian rupee in particular appeared to benefit from the strengthening of the country’smacroeconomic framework, falling by much less than other EM Asian currencies including therupiah and ringgit, let alone problem children like the Brazilian real and Turkish lira.

最近的证据暂时有利于区分者。在8月中国央行贬值人民币引发市场动荡之前的新兴市场货币下跌中，一些证据显示出经济基本面带来的分化。如果某些新兴市场经济体对短期资本流入的依赖程度更低，则其货币对美元的表现就会更好。特别是印度卢比，似乎受益于本国宏观经济框架的加强，下跌幅度比印尼盾和马来西亚林吉特等其他亚洲新兴市场货币小得多，相比巴西雷亚尔和土耳其里拉等“问题小孩就更不必说了。

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