但是,LTRO买的是时间。最新一次希腊救助计划也是如此。2月27日,德国联邦议院批准了德国在该基金中承担的份额。希腊调整私人债权人债务的一系列动作导致其债券被临时降级为选择性违约,但却没有什么影响。短期看来,希腊几乎不可能出现违约动荡。但是,也几乎没有人相信希腊救助计划真的管用。最终,希腊要么向救助者寻求更多帮助,要么面临违约,也许还要退出欧元区。
What matters, therefore, is how well the euro zone uses the time it has bought itself. Thesigns are worrying. Policymakers overwhelming focus on budgetausterity is facing increasing resistance. Spain announced on February 27th that its 2011budget deficit, at 8.5% of GDP, was even bigger than first expected. It wants to renegotiatethe 2012 deficit target of 4.4% of GDP.
因此,关键是看欧元区怎么用好自己买到的时间。现在的迹象令人担忧。决策者误入歧途,过分强调预算紧缩,现在面临了越来越多的抵抗。2月27日,西班牙宣布其2011年预算赤字为GDP的8.5%,高于先期预测。西班牙欲就其2012年的赤字目标进行重新协商,该目标为GDP的4.4%。
More worrying still is the lack of progress in building permanent defenses against a loss ofconfidence in another sovereigns bonds. Much faith is placed in the ESM, to be launched onJuly 1st. This EURO500 billion fund is supposedly stronger than the current iteration, theEuropean Financial Stability Facility , because it is enshrined in legal treaties andbecause EURO80 billion of its capital will eventually be paid in, whereas the EFSF relies onguarantees. Although Germany still resists, most euro-zone members hope to run both fundssimultaneously, which implies a theoretical cash-chest of EURO750 billion.
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