欧洲国家不愿意冒险投入大量现款,这一点削弱了防火墙的第二部分国际货币基金组织的资金源。在墨西哥城召开的G20会议上,成员国明确表示在欧洲国家做出可靠承诺前,他们不会向该基金注资。
Worse, even if it were fully in place, this is still a rather flimsy sort of defence. Relying onvast infusions of money from the IMF could actually worsen the problems of a country likeItaly, since the funds presumed preferred-creditor status would push privatebondholders further down the pecking order. Nor are the amounts being talked about enoughto remove the risk of panic. As Willem Buiter of Citigroup points out, the weaker membersof the euro zone collectively need to borrow some EURO2 trillion over the next two years.
更不妙的是,即使资金全部就绪,这也只能是一层脆弱的抵御。事实上,依靠IMF灌入大量资金对于像意大利这样的国家来说会将问题恶化,因为该基金的预期优先债权人身份会将私人债券持有人推向更低的社会等级。这笔数目也不足以消除出现大恐慌的风险。正如花期公司的维勒姆?布提尔指出的那样,在未来两年内,欧元区较脆弱的成员国共需借款2万亿欧元左右。
To get properly on top of its debt problem, Europe needs to be bolder. A growing chorusargues that this must entail some form of joint liability for countries debts. A proposalfrom the German Council of Economic Experts for a European Debt Redemption Fund, whichwould mutualize all euro-zone members debts above 60% of GDP, with strict rules to paythem off over 25 years, is gaining traction in some quarters. Germany itself remainsstaunchly opposed to anything that smells of Eurobonds, and the current period of calm hasonly reinforced that resistance. Meanwhile, the clock ticks.
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