综合以上两个因素,明显可以看出,近年来,中国成了世界的“最后的消费者”,而传统上这一角色更多是由美国扮演。随着其他许多经济体——尤其是美国和欧洲部分地区——开启“大规模去杠杆”,北京方面起到了平衡的作用。其他国家获救了,但中国却负债累累——最明显的是影子银行迅速扩张所带来的债务膨胀。
Had China not performed this role, the world would have faced a far greater crisis.
如果中国没有扮演这样的角色,世界面临的危机可能要严重得多。
Imagine that Chinese infrastructure investment had not surged. Commodity prices would not have recovered in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis. Many emerging nations would have found themselves short of export revenues and, in some cases, faced with immediate balance-of-payments crises.
想象一下,如果中国没有大幅增加基础设施投资会怎样?那么,在金融危机后,大宗商品价格就不会快速回升。许多新兴国家会发现本国缺少出口收入,而且在某些情况下,直接面临着国际收支危机。
Or imagine the renminbi had not soared. The rest of the world would not have devalued, monetary conditions for many countries would have been tighter and, as a result, global deflationary pressures would have been far more intense than they have proved to be.
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