艾德里安?伍德(Adrian Wood)最近的研究衡量了这种情况发生的程度。如下表所示(若需要更多细节,请查阅相关论文),在1985年之后的30年里,制造业在全球生产和就业中所占比例明显下滑。但不同地区经历了截然不同的变化。尤其是,在大多数土地稀缺的地区(根据理论,这些是尤其倾向于专攻制造业的地区),制造业在经济中的占比有所扩大,而在所有土地充裕的地区,制造业在经济中的占比缩小了。
Wood suggests this shows that the dramatic changes in manufacturing employment can be laid at the door of economic globalisation. But the story is not as simple as that. Look where the biggest changes in employment shares happened. Among rich countries (OECD members), the manufacturing employment share fell just as much in land-rich and land-scarce economies. The output share increased in land-scarce ones — but in conjunction with the loss of manufacturing jobs, this is surely an effect of automation and technology. Meanwhile the two other regions with particularly large structural changes were the Soviet sphere, which in 1985 had an overgrown and inefficient manufacturing sector that collapsed under its own weight once the economy was liberalised, and China, whose liberalisation and trade integration surely contributed to its industrial revolution.
伍德认为,这表明制造业就业的急剧变化可以归咎于经济全球化。但事实没那么简单。看看哪些地区的制造业就业占比变化最大。在富裕国家中(经合组织(OECD)成员国),土地充裕经济体与土地稀缺经济体的制造业就业占比降幅相当。制造业在土地稀缺经济体的产出中的占比增加——但同时制造业就业流失,这肯定是自动化和技术的影响。与此同时,另外两个结构变化特别大的地区是前苏联地区和中国。前者在1985年制造业发展过快、效率低下,在经济进行自由化时被自身重量压垮,而后者的自由化和贸易一体化显然促进了工业变革。
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