What all this points to, then, is a process in which many poor countries went from a pre-industrial employment structure to an industrial one (but some stagnated, in particular in Africa), and in which all rich countries largely went from an industrial to a service-based employment structure. The poor country transition or lack of it no doubt owes a lot to the ability to enter the world trading system. In the rich country transition this looks more like what you would expect from the continued growth in manufacturing productivity, echoing what had earlier happened in agriculture.
那么,这一切都指向了很多贫穷国家从工业化前就业结构到工业化就业结构的过程(但有些国家的这一过程陷入了停滞,特别是在非洲),以及所有富裕国家基本上从工业化就业结构到以服务业为基础的就业结构的过程。贫穷国家实现转型或未能转型,无疑与它们进入世界贸易体系的能力有很大关系。而富裕国家的转型,看起来更像是制造业生产率持续增长所必然带来的,与之前农业出现的情况相似。
And conversely, there is direct evidence for the automation thesis. A new study by Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo tries to measure the effect on US jobs (and wages) of the increased use of industrial robots. An interview with Acemoglu about the findings puts the number of manufacturing jobs lost because of robots at 670,000 between 1990 and 2007.
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