中美关系下滑的速度超出人们预料。随之而来的问题是:这两个国家是否会闭着眼睛跳入所谓守成大国与新兴大国不惜发生战争的“修昔底德陷阱”?美国在推动加快这个下滑进程,但需仔细考量的是:“这是否符合美国的最佳利益?”而对于中国人来说,需要考虑的不仅是如何智慧应对挑战,而且要看这种向错误方向的下滑有没有可能被阻止。
China-US relations have deteriorated faster than almost anyone could have expected. The question looms: Are the two countries leaping with their eyes closed into a so-called Thucydides Trap, with war possible between the rising and the established power? The US is driving this process and should reflect carefully whether it's in Americans' best interests to continue down this path. China also needs to consider how to address the challenges wisely and whether the slide in the wrong direction can be halted.
贸易摩擦带来的紧张局势开始向其他领域蔓延。美国声称中国已成为其主要的战略竞争对手,甚至指责中国“干涉”选举并试图挑战美国的全球霸权。在国际层面,全球主义和多边主义遭到批判;同时地缘政治和大国竞争重登台面,同民粹主义、保护主义杂揉在一起,正在削弱几十年来各国之间建立的纽带。所有这些不确定因素颇有要将世界拖回到20世纪上半叶那种动荡状态之势。
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