就目前而言,金融市场波澜不惊对奥巴马有所帮助。美国将需要数年时间才会正视其财政状况的现实,并将收入提高到足以为一个经过改革(但没有削弱)的福利国家提供资金的水平。未来几年美国将依然面临巨额财政赤字,最起码只要债券市场保持平静(而这正是我预期的),情况就会如此。
Bond market “vigilantes have no appetite for destruction. Why should they? Growth is low and inflation lower; the US still has the global reserve currency; US Treasuries remain haven assets; interest rates are at zero; the US Federal Reserve is committed to QE; and China and other emerging economies will keep accruing US dollars to resist appreciations in their own currencies. All this guarantees the cheap financing of the US deficit for years to come. But eventually, the vigilantes will wake up.
债市“侠客无意进行破坏。他们有什么理由这么做呢?美国经济增长低迷,通胀下降;美元仍是全球储备货币;美国国债依然是避险资产;利率为零;美联储(Fed)致力于定量宽松政策,中国以及其他新兴经济体将继续积累美元来抵御本币升值。所有这些保证美国在未来数年可以为其赤字获得廉价融资。但债市“侠客最终将醒悟过来。
In short, the “mini deal on the fiscal cliff dodged all the important questions. By not including spending cuts in the deal, the Democrats have emboldened Republicans who are determined to slash taxes but lack a plan to pay for it. It is again up to Washington’s policy makers to fix the problem before the market does it for them. Tuesday’s deal suggests this will not happen with any ease.
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