In the meantime, the likely fiscal adjustment in 2013 will be about 1.4 per cent of gross domestic product. (Spread between the expiry of the payroll tax cut, the increase in the tax rates of the rich, and some eventual cuts to spending.)
与此同时,2013年可能的财政调整规模将占到国内生产总值(GDP)的1.4%左右(工资税减免法案到期、提高富人税率和某些最终的支出削减等财政调整的净效果)。
This translates into a 1.2 per cent of GDP drag on the economy during the year. If the economy was happily growing above trend – at say 3.5 per cent – that would not be such a big deal, as growth would still be above 2 per cent. In the past few quarters growth already averaged about 2 per cent. So the US could quite easily come perilously close to stall speed this year – or worse, if the eurozone crisis worsens.
这意味着财政调整对2013年全年经济的拖累将占到GDP的1.2%。如果美国经济增长幸运地高于趋势水平(比如说达到3.5%),那就不会有大问题,因为最终经济增长仍将高于2%。但在过去的几个季度里,美国平均经济增速已经只有2%左右,因此美国经济今年非常容易失速,这是非常危险的——如果欧元区危机恶化的话,甚至会更糟糕。
The longer-term picture is bleaker still. The reality is that America is yet to wake up to the full extent of its fiscal nightmare. Even the typical Republican voter is not – being on average older and poorer than a Democrat voter – in favour of gutting the welfare state. Tea Party extremists are more noise than signal. That is why the plans of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans’ losing presidential ticket, postponed all the tough spending cuts on Social Security and Medicare by a decade.
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