Last Thursday saw the start of negotiations in Washington on a deficit-reduction agreement to be passed by year-end. If struck, a deal would avert the much-feared fiscal cliff – $500bn in annual tax increases and spending cuts, which is set to begin in four weeks. Despite the immediacy of this threat, there is widespread fear that the negotiations may fail, triggering this huge fiscal contraction and pushing the fragile US economy back into recession.
近来,华盛顿开始了一系列关于削减赤字的谈判,计划在年底之前达成协议。如果成功达成,协议将避免美国如许多人担忧的那样跌落“财政悬崖。如不采取任何行动,美国将在四周以后跌落“财政悬崖——每年5000亿美元的增税和减支。尽管风险迫在眉睫,但人们还是普遍担忧协商无果,从而引发大规模财政收缩,令脆弱的美国经济再次陷入衰退。
Fortunately this fear is misplaced because America will not go over the fiscal cliff and stay there. However bumpy the talks, a deficit agreement will probably emerge just before or a week or two after the year-end deadline. The agreement will reduce deficits without injuring economic growth. And it will boost consumer and business confidence.
幸运的是,这种担忧是多余的,因为美国不会就这样跌落悬崖、再也爬不起来。不论谈判遇到多少波折,协议很有可能赶在年底期限到来之前或年后一两周内达成。协议将在不损害经济增长的情况下降低赤字。同时,协议也将提振消费者和企业的信心。
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