但关键问题是,历史会不会重演,会不会像战后的若干年那样再次出现大幅的薪酬波动。就目前而言,这一点似乎还难以想象;毕竟,过去几十年的经验说明,银行家拿高薪几乎是再正常不过的事情。
But as this year's bonus round comes to an end, there are some hints of change. The sector is shrinking: an estimated 60,000 jobs were cut last year. Staff are being paid in stock deferred over a longer time, and pay appears to be falling. Morgan Stanley, for example, has declared plans to cap the amount of bonus that its staff can receive immediately at $125,000; Goldman Sachs has announced that it is cutting 2011 compensation by 21 per cent; JPMorgan Chase has cut the total pay pool for its investment bankers by 36 per cent year on year. Indeed, the consensus among bank executives in Davos last week was that total compensation for mid — to senior — level employees in 2011 was about 30 per cent lower than 2010 – and perhaps 60 per cent below the 2007 peak. "There is a big change now," claims one Wall Street CEO.
不过,随着本年度发放奖金的周期接近尾声,我们已经看到了一些变化的迹象。银行业规模正在缩小,去年大约削减了6万个工作岗位。银行开始以锁定期更久的股票来支付员工薪酬,与此同时,薪酬似乎正在下降。例如,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)已宣布计划将员工可立即拿到的奖金上限设为12.5万美元;高盛(Goldman Sachs)则宣布会将2011年度的薪酬削减21%;摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)也把投行业务的总薪酬池同比削减了36%。事实上,银行业高管上周在达沃斯形成的共识是,2011年度中高级员工的薪酬比2010年大约降低了30%,与2007年的峰值相比可能降低了60%。一位华尔街机构的首席执行官称:“现在局面发生了巨大的变化。”
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