“A key takeaway should have been that you can make outlandish promises for the future as long as you maintain one key ingredient: more victims entering the scheme than exiting.
巴斯写道:“世人应该已经明白了至关重要的一点,即只要你能确保一个关键条件——落入骗局的受害者比走出的多——你就可以针对未来许下离谱的诺言。
His point is simple: social security costs in Japan have been rising steadily. The retirement age is 65. And the peak years for Japan’s birth rate were the four from 1947.
他的论点很简单:日本的社保成本一直在稳步上升。日本人的退休年龄是65岁,而始于1947年的四年是日本出生率的巅峰期。
Japan is finally facing its reckoning, Mr Bass says, driven by insuperable demographic forces and triggered by a worsening current account – which has for the first time slipped into deficit – after years of widening debt to gross domestic product and falling government revenues.
巴斯表示,在这方面,日本终于将迎来“算总帐的一天。这个问题是由不断恶化的经常账户引发的:多年来,日本债务相对国内生产总值(GDP)的比例不断扩大,政府财政收入不断下滑,日本经常账户首次出现赤字。无法克服的人口因素又对问题的加剧起到了推波助澜的作用。
And yet, we have been here before. Betting against Japan has been a persistent hedge fund favourite.
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★ 懒汉海利
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