里格的论点要比巴斯的更为温和:他表示,定于12月16日举行的日本大选将成为形势改变的催化剂,这次的大选有望将自民党(LDP)党魁安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)送上日本首相宝座。
With the governor and two deputy governors of the BoJ set to be replaced early next year, an Abe administration could lead to a permanently more dovish BoJ, Mr Rigg says, which would be likely to break new ground in quantitative easing by buying foreign bonds.
里格指出:“安倍以渴望推动经济增长著称。很明显,他希望日本央行(BoJ)采取更为激进的措施。
Mr Rigg expects such a development could push JGB yields as high as 2 per cent – nowhere near the 6 or 7 per cent catastrophists see but enough to make short sellers huge profits.
他表示,由于日本央行明年初将更换行长及两名副行长,安倍任内可能会产生一个长期偏鸽派的日本央行,它很可能会采取通过购买外国债券来实行量化宽松的全新举措。
“There are some people who look at the debt dynamics of Japan and go ‘oh boy’ – people who think this is a Greek-type situation with yields at 6 per cent. I’m not saying that it can’t happen but we don’t think it will, he says.
里格预计,这种变化可将日本国债收益率推高到2%,虽然距日本崩溃论者预计的6%到7%还很远,但足以令做空者大赚一笔了。
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