And nor, crucially, do hedge funds need it to in order to make big returns.
他表示:“有些人看到日本的债务态势就大喊‘天哪’——他们认为这里的形势和希腊一样,国债收益率将达6%。我不是说这完全不可能发生,我们只是认为它不会发生。
Audley tells potential investors in the Japan fund to expect triple-digit percentage gains – based on current futures prices against Japanese debt – if its thesis is proved correct.
而且关键问题在于,对冲基金也不需要这么高的国债收益率才能获取丰厚回报。
It is precisely the asymmetry of the Japan trade, as much as the fundamentals behind it, that is now making it so attractive to hedge funds once more.
奥德利告诉那支专门做空日本的基金的潜在投资者,根据当前的日本国债期货与现货价格之比,基金的回报率有望达到三位数——前提是事实证明奥德利的论点是正确的。
“Japan’s situation is such that the question is no longer ‘why bet against it?’ but ‘why not?’ says one portfolio manager at a large global macro firm. The cost of taking out puts on Japanese bonds is negligible. The upside huge.
正是这种成本与回报的不对称(及其背后的基本面因素),使得做空日本国债的交易又一次对对冲基金产生了巨大的吸引力。
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