问题:民主党国会议员在全国范围内赢得了比共和党议员更多的选票,而并未仰仗那种技术。
Theory 3: Mitt Romney was a weak candidate – it was his fault.
解释三:米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)这个候选人实力太弱——输掉大选是他的错。
(The problem: the other 2012 Republican candidates were even weaker. And take a longer view: in the six presidential elections since 1988, Republicans have won a majority of the vote exactly once, in 2004. In the six elections before 1988, Republican presidential candidates averaged 52.5 per cent of the vote. The party’s weakness is chronic but masked by its big wins in non-presidential years, such as 1994 and 2010, when younger, poorer and browner voters tend to stay home.)
问题:2012年的其他共和党人选实力更弱。从更长期来看,自1988年以来的6次总统大选中,共和党仅在2004年以绝对多数赢得大眩在1988年以前的6次选举中,共和党总统候选人平均得票率为52.5%。共和党的弱势是长期的,但被非大选年的大胜掩盖了,比如在1994年和2010年,当时较年轻、贫穷以及深色人种的选民往往呆在家里而不去投票。
Theory 4: there is nothing wrong with this party that a pivot on immigration policy cannot fix.
解释四:这个坚持其移民政策立场的政党没什么错。
(The problem: surveys indicate that Latino voters prefer Democrats on every issue, not just immigration. The large illegal immigrant population inside the US is an important issue of public policy. But there should be no illusions: once legalised, that population will vote with its pocketbook, just like everybody else. Compared with the national norm, Hispanic Americans are poorer, less educated, less likely to have health insurance and more dependent on means-tested social programmes. Why would they vote Republican?)
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