Barnum's method works because of the fallacy of positive instances. Because people tend to remember whatever confirms their expectations and forget the rest, an illusion of accuracy is created. If you still doubt this, read all 12 of the daily horoscopes in the newspaper for several days. You will find that the predictions of the other signs will fit you as well as your own. Although astrology has a highly developed system that makes it look like a science, studies have repeatedly shown it to have no scientific validity. In addition, astrologists still can't explain why the moment of birth should be more important than the moment of conception in determining personality. (It is most likely because the exact time of birth can be determined, but the moment of conception cannot.
巴纳姆的理论之所以奏效是因为正例谬误效应。人们倾向于记下那些符合他们期望的,无论那是什么,而忘掉剩下的,因此产生这份描述“准确”的错觉。(注:所谓的正例谬误效应,是指人们由于只关注与自己期望相符的信息而忽略其他信息所产生的知觉错误。在生活中,正例谬误效应有很多实际的体现,当你看表时,你是否会觉得“怎么老是11:11(或者是其他你觉得特殊的数字)”而实际上,如果你记录每次看表时的时间,你会发现这个特殊数字并没有比别的时间多。要克服正例谬误效应比较难,因为人天生喜欢相信神奇的事情,况且大多数情况下对方给出的都是一些取悦你的话(无批判接受顺言 uncritical acceptance),你是女的就说你气质好,男的就说你有天赋,人又是自恋的,想不相信都不行。)如果你依然对此持怀疑态度,请连续几天阅读报纸上12个星座的每日星座运势,你会发现其他星座的预测就像你自己星座的预测一样,与你的情况相符。尽管占星学有一套发达的系统,它看起来像是真正的科学,但研究已经一而再再而三的证实占星学和科学根本沾不上关系。而且,占星术依然无法解释在决定性格时,为什么出生时刻比怀孕时刻更重要。(最有可能的解释是出生时间可以被确知,而怀孕时间不能确定。)
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