Forget the Federal Reserve. Forget the European Central Bank. The institution whose decisions will matter most to the world economy over the next five years is China's State Council.
忘记美联储(Federal Reserve),忘记欧洲央行(European Central Bank)。未来五年,对世界经济影响最大的决定将来自中国国务院。
The 30 or so officials that the National People's Congress will this month name as new five-year members of that powerful cabinet body will oversee a sweeping economic transformation with global consequences. How smoothly they manage China's planned transition from an unsustainable growth model that's been based on exports and state-directed investment toward an open, consumer-driven economy will have vast implications for the rest of the world. Prices for everything from European government bonds to iron ore are on the line. How it transpires will even dictate whether and when the Fed and the ECB can normalize their extraordinary monetary easing policies.
中国的全国人民代表大会本月将任命大约30名官员进入这个拥有很大权力的内阁机构,开始他们为期五年的任期。这些官员将负责会在全球造成影响的全面经济转型。他们将实施中国的经济转型规划,改变依赖出口和政府主导的投资的不可持续增长模式,转向开放的消费者驱动型经济,这一过程是否顺利将会对世界其他地区产生深远的影响。从欧洲各国政府债券到铁矿石,一切资产的价格都会受到影响。这次转型的过程甚至将决定美联储和欧洲央行能否让他们不同寻常的货币宽松政策正常化。
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