China is hardly immune to such a possibility. But it is unlikely to occur if China can carry out the services and consumption rebalancing that remains the core strategic initiative of its 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15). Invariably, the middle-income trap afflicts those emerging economies that cling to early-stage development models for too long. For China, the risk will be highest if it sticks with the timeworn recipe of unbalanced manufacturing- and construction-led growth, which has created such serious sustainability problems.
If China fails to rebalance, weak external demand from a crisis-battered developed world will continue to hobble its exports, forcing it to up the ante on a credit- and investment-led growth model - in effect, doubling down on resource-intensive and environmentally damaging growth.
Financial markets, as well as growth-starved developed economies, are not thrilled with the natural rhythm of slower growth that a rebalanced Chinese economy is likely to experience, and resource industries - indeed, resource-based economies like Australia, Canada, Brazil, and Russia - have become addicted to China's old strain of unsustainable hyper-growth. Yet China knows that it is time to break that dangerous habit.
The United States is likely to have a different problem with consumer-led growth in China. After all, higher private consumption implies an end to China's surplus saving - and thus to the seemingly open-ended recycling of that surplus into dollar-based assets such as US Treasury bills. Who will then fund America's budget deficit - and on what terms?
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