这可以凸显出金融市场的一个铁律:实际杠杆总是比金融危机爆发前设想的高。此外,杠杆还变得更加不容易看清,因为它融入到复杂金融工具的结构中,些微的市场变动就会导致价值大幅波动。与直接借款不同,这一点并不体现在账目中。
A striking feature of the Deutsche case is just how big a risk it was taking in just one of the many complex markets in which it operates. This tends to reinforce the case of those who argue that a far greater capital cushion will be necessary to address the next financial crisis.
德银案的一个显著特征是,该行在一个市场上就承担了如此巨大的风险,而这个市场还只是该行所涉足的众多复杂市场之一。有人认为,要应对下一场金融危机,就必要建立规模比现在大出许多的资本缓冲。德银案看来为这种观点提供了佐证。
The saga also lends strength to the arguments of Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England, who argued at the central bankers’ talkfest at Jackson Hole in August that simple leverage ratios have been better predictors of default at big, complex banks than risk-weighted alternatives. For my money the fact that Deutsche’s leverage ratio stood at only 2.6 per cent in the third quarter of this year is a great deal more interesting than its tier one ratio of 10.7 per cent. Simplicity should take precedence.
这一神奇事件还对英国央行(BoE)的安德鲁·霍尔丹(Andrew Haldane)的论点形成了支持。霍尔丹在今年8月召开的杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)央行官员会议上主张,与风险加权比率相比,简单的杠杆率向来是预测大型复杂银行违约的更准确指标。今年第三季度德银的杠杆率仅为2.6%,在我看来,这一事实要比该行10.7%的一级资本比率有趣得多。银行业应简单至上。
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