预测科学的进步可以为这些问题提供答案。加州大学旧金山分校和哈佛大学的医学研究者们开发了ePrognosis网站,它整理出19种风险计算法,可供老人计算自己在未来6个月到10年内的死亡率。ePrognosis的开发者说,较为脆弱的老年人想知道自己的预期年龄,以便规划自己的保健计划,同时做出财务选择,比如说花掉一些积蓄。
Even more revolutionary is RealAge, a product of Sharecare Inc. that has quantified our impression that as we age, some of us are really older, while others are younger than the count of their years. It uses an algorithm that assesses a variety of habits and medical data to calculate how old you “really” are.
更有革命性的是Sharecare公司开发的产品RealAge。我们当中有些人比实际年龄显老,有些人比实际年龄显得年轻,RealAge就是把这种感觉量化出来。它使用一种算法,通过生活习惯、服药数据等资料计算你“事实上”有多大年纪。
Websites like these can be a convenient vehicle to disseminate information (and marketing materials) to patients. But complex actuarial data — including its uncertainties and limitations — is best conveyed during a face-to-face, doctor-patient conversation.
类似网站可以成为方便的工具,向病人传播信息(以及市场信息)。但是复杂精算数据中包括了各种不确定性和局限性,病人最好还是同医生当面交流。
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