在2008年总统大选中,希拉里几乎忽略了她的性别。选出美国首位黑人总统的前景,让人忽视了女性同样面对着巨大的“玻璃天花板”。由于她被人熟知,人们很容易低估她在2016年激发女性热情的潜力。在美国,黑人男性获得选举权的时间要比女性早半个多世纪。对于巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)而言,黑人选民是他在2008年以绝对优势入主白宫的一个有力因素。女性也可能会将希拉里送入白宫。男女投票人数差距已经拉大(2017年美国女性投票率为63.7%,男性为59.8%)。如果希拉里能够把差距再提高几个百分点,那么她将稳操胜券。
The women’s vote is Mrs Clinton’s potential gold mine. But it is also her pitfall. Any sense that she is pandering to one slice of the electorate — even if it makes up more than half of it — could backfire. Many women (and men) revile Mrs Clinton as a manipulative figure who owes her career to her husband. Women lean more Democratic than Republican, but most do not vote on a candidate’s gender. Moreover, at 67, Mrs Clinton suffers from an age gap. In 2008, Mr Obama won more young women’s votes in the Democratic primaries than Mrs Clinton, although she received marginally more of the female vote overall. She cannot expect to shift the gender gap simply by declaring that her election would make history. She will need to incite women’s hopes without alienating men. As it happens,a majority of both belong to America’s squeezed middle class.
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