China is laying claim to the near-totality of the disputed territories. Fancying that it has time on its side, it has already begun to set up a strategic outpost – a prefecture-level city – to assert its occupation and administration of the atolls. Nationalist constituencies in all the countries concerned are pressing their respective governments for conspicuous displays of assertiveness. There are few signs of an easy end to the impasse.

中国宣称拥有几乎整个争议领土的所有权。中国认为该区域自古以来就是中国的领土，并且已经开始设立战略前哨——一座地级市——来宣称对这些环礁的所有权和管辖权。其他所有相关国家的民族主义选民正在向各自的政府施压，要求政府明确地展示自信。这一僵局尚未出现善了的迹象。

These events may also be a prologue to a longer story. A similar dynamic to that in the South China Sea may well develop in the Arctic, where at least five countries – the US, Russia, Canada, Norway and Denmark – are scrambling for position as the polar ice melts at ever-accelerating rates. China, while not yet a first-order Arctic player, is very much alive to this situation. It and other big players, including India and the EU, will want in. The ambitions of the actors in this theatre may soon be at odds with the prevailing “Pax Arctica doctrine that claims, at least publicly, that the international rule of law, prudence and co-operation will govern the judgment and behaviour of all players for the foreseeable future.

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