Recent IMF research shows that large scale capital inflows have frequently triggered domestic credit explosions, and it is reasonable to suppose that capital outflows could cause an unintended tightening in domestic financial conditions in China. Indeed, the graph on the left suggests that this is already happening.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)不久前的研究显示，大规模资本流入经常引发国内信贷爆炸性增长，因此可以合理推断，资本外流有可能在无意中导致中国的国内金融状况收紧。的确，左边的曲线图似乎表明，这种情况已经在发生。

Whether the Chinese credit squeeze continues depends on two factors: the future course of private capital outflows, and the attitude of the authorities to the exchange rate. The higher the capital outflows, and the more determined is the PBOC to prevent a large devaluation, the greater the depletion in the reserves will be.

中国的信贷紧缩是否会延续下去，取决于两个因素：私人资本外流的未来走向，以及官方对汇率的态度。资本外流速度越快，中国央行越是坚定地阻止人民币大幅贬值，那么外汇储备的消耗幅度就越大。

Some analysts are optimistic that the pace of capital outflows will slow down automatically in the near future. Nomura estimates that much of the “hot money” that entered China after 2010 has now exited the country. For example, they suggest that the outstanding stock of foreign loans previously taken out by Chinese banks to finance domestic lending has already been cut in half, from a peak of $887 billion a year ago. If so, the capital outflow could soon start to abate.

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