在中国央行这一改革之后,对中国可能允许或积极鼓励人民币大幅贬值的担忧,引发了一轮人民币抛售潮。
“The most important factor is confidence, both globally and within China,” said a central bank official. “The cost of intervention in terms of reserves has been high, but this policy can’t be evaluated just in terms of numbers. Once confidence is lost it can’t be easily restored. Then a lot of bad things can happen.”
一名央行官员表示:“不论对全球还是中国国内来说,信心都是最重要的因素。用外储干预的代价很高,但这一政策的价值不能只用数字来衡量。信心一旦丧失就很难恢复。届时会发生很多糟糕的事情。”
PBoC officials knew that changing the way the central bank set the daily “fix” would unleash pent-up depreciation pressure, but they underestimated the intensity of the market reaction, according to analysts.
按照分析师的说法,中国央行官员事先知道改变人民币中间价设定方式可能释放被抑制的人民币贬值压力,不过他们低估了市场反应的激烈程度。
A move that might have been expected to produce a 5 per cent downward adjustment quickly threatened to spark a 10 or 20 per cent rout in a matter of days. Such an uncontrolled devaluation could have undermined the broader financial system by inciting investors to dump renminbi assets en masse.
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