Yet, as great as the risks of Brexit are to the British economy, I believe the risks to the US and global economies of Mr Trump’s election as president are far greater. If he is elected, I would expect a protracted recession to begin within 18 months. The damage would be felt far beyond the United States.

而我认为，尽管英国退欧对英国经济造成的风险很大，特朗普当选美国总统对美国乃至全球经济的影响要大得多。如果他当选，我预计美国18个月内将陷入旷日持久的衰退。受到损害的将远不止美国。

First, there is a substantial risk of highly erratic policy. Mr Trump has raised the possibility of more than $10tn in tax cuts, which would threaten US fiscal stability. He has also raised the possibility of the US restructuring its debt in the manner of a failed real estate developer. Perhaps this is just campaign rhetoric. But historical research suggests that presidents tend to carry out their major campaign promises.

首先，存在政策高度不稳定的巨大风险。特朗普提出了减税逾10万亿美元的可能性，这将威胁美国的财政稳定。他还提出了以破产房地产开发商的方式对美国债务进行重组的可能性。或许，这只是竞选口号。但是，历史研究表明，美国总统往往会兑现他们的主要竞选承诺。

The shadow boxing over raising the debt limit in 2011 (where all participants recognised the danger of default) was central to the stock market falling by 17 per cent.

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