There is a hole at the heart of India’s economy. And since the lights don’t seem to work, the nation risks falling into it. Power outages on a gargantuan scale have crippled the country this week, disrupting economic activity. The problem is not simply one of lack of investment.
印度经济有一个大洞。而且,由于灯好像不亮了,印度很有可能掉进这个洞里。本周发生的大规模停电事故使印度陷入了瘫痪,经济活动也因此遭到破坏。这不仅仅是一个缺乏投资的问题。
True, India suffers from a power generation capacity shortfall. At peak times, such as the hot summer months, demand for electricity is a fifth higher than supply. Electricity sector reform allowing private investment over the past decade is changing that. New capacity should reach 26,000MW this year, twice the capacity installed last year because of investments by the likes of Tata Powerand Adani Power.
没错,印度确实受到发电能力存在缺口的困扰。在用电高峰期,比如炎热的夏季,电力需求要比电力供给多出20%。过去十年,印度改革了电力行业,允许民间资本进入。如今,这一改革正在显现出成效。今年的新增发电能力将达到2.6万兆瓦,相当于去年新增发电能力的两倍,这得益于塔塔电力(Tata Power)和阿达尼电力(Adani Power)等企业的投资。
The trouble is, the sector’s economics do not add up. Fuel suppliers such as Coal Indiaand gas producers are unable to produce enough to keep the power stations fed. So power generators must resort to expensive imports. That pushes up input prices. Yet electricity tariffs are capped for consumers, meaning that electricity suppliers sell their product at a loss. No wonder India’s state power utilities have debts of Rupees 3tn ($54bn). And they are expected to treble their losses over the next three years.
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