Investors should not fight the Fed when it comes to what this institution, with its printing press, can deliver with a high degree of confidence – namely anchoring the front end of the US Treasury curve (up to the seven-year point as an illustration) and repressing related volatility. With renewed purchases of securities and its willingness to extend the guidance language into 2015, the Fed can keep these rates artificially low for quite a while. Long maturity US Treasuries are a trickier proposition for the Fed.
如果美联储信心十足地采取什么行动,投资者们不应反其道而行之。毕竟,美联储掌握着发钞权,它可以固定美国国债收益率曲线的前端(比方说7年),并抑制相关的波动性。美联储可推出新一轮证券购买计划,并表示愿意将对利率的指导性意见延续到2015年,这意味着美联储可以在相当长的时期人为压低利率。美国长期国债对美联储是个更加棘手的问题。
This favours a number of assets including high-quality short and intermediate maturity corporate bonds, agency mortgages, related sales of volatility and even some high-quality non-agency mortgages and structured products. It also supports hard assets, such as gold, where people go in an attempt to protect against the potential risk of higher inflation.
这对以下一些资产是个利好:优质中短期公司债券,机构抵押贷款(agency mortgage),波动性相关交易,甚至一些非机构抵押贷款,以及结构性产品。这对一些硬资产也是个利好,比如黄金。人们出于防范通胀升高的潜在风险考虑而购入此类资产。
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