瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)亚洲首席经济学家沈建光表示:“(中国)增长势头自第三季度开始减缓,我们认为放缓趋势在2018年可能会延续。这主要是政策紧缩的结果,包括金融去杠杆、治理污染相关控制以及对过热的房地产市场的新限制。”
China’s slowdown is likely to be expressed mainly in a cooling of its real estate market, with October numbers already showing a significant ebbing of growth momentum in property investment, new home starts and sales. Nevertheless, consumer spending is likely to remain strong next year as incomes continue to rise strongly and the willingness to consume among the younger generation stays buoyant.
中国经济放缓的主要表现可能是房地产市场的降温,10月份的数据已经显示房地产投资、新房开工和销售的增长势头出现显著放缓。不过,明年消费者支出可能保持强劲,因为收入增长依然强劲,而且年轻一代的消费意愿仍然旺盛。
So if both of the big risks for EMs — the Fed and a Chinese slowdown — remain contained, investors may feel liberated enough to concentrate on other more positive narratives, say analysts.
因此,分析师表示,如果新兴市场面临的这两大风险——美联储和中国经济放缓——继续受到抑制,投资者可能会感到足够的自由度去专注于其他更积极的观点。
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