首先,特朗普属于交易型领导人,而非制度型。他像交易撮合者一样看待外交政策,不关心其政策结果是否符合美国的传统做法——建立推进美国的利益和价值观的制度。在谈判桌上,特朗普将不时展现对抗性姿态。他容易冲动。他喜欢制造不确定性,并认为这种不确定性能够增强其影响力。特朗普的自我意识在其中发挥着极其巨大的作用,还有他的私人(甚至家庭)关系。他是我经历过的首位不认为机构大于个人的总统。
Second, Mr Trump’s domestic political interests will dominate his foreign policy. One wise American statesman suggested to me this spring that Mr Trump, like other presidents, wants to be successful, and therefore would move closer to mainstream policies. This assessment depends on how one defines success: I believe Mr Trump’s aim is a political realignment, which he thinks he can achieve by embracing and voicing the grievances of his voters.
第二,特朗普在国内政治中的利益将主导其外交政策。一位充满智慧的美国政治家今春提示我:特朗普像别的总统一样希望获得成功,因而,他将进一步向主流政策靠近。这一判断取决于如何定义成功:我认为特朗普的目标是进行政治重组,他认为这可以通过迎合并表达支持他的选民的不满来实现这一目标。
Accordingly, he welcomes battles over trade, immigration and his wall with Mexico. Note as well that the president’s directive in the Middle East is to destroy the terrorists of Isis — obvious enemies that his backers can recognise. He has no plans to complement military action by creating forces or safe zones that can establish a rough power balance on the ground and resist Iranian expansion.
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