美国已经在一定程度上认识到这一变化的现实,并在2017年出炉了第三次抵消战略,宣告美国必须在机器人和人工智能(AI)等下一代技术领域保持霸主地位。在这些领域,唯一有可能成为美国对手的国家是中国,中国也在大举投资于这些技术。
But the third offset strategy only counters part of the threat in the age of asymmetrical conflict. In the virtual world, there are few rules of the game, little way of assessing your opponent’s intentions and capabilities, and no real clues about whether you are winning or losing.
但第三次抵消战略只能抵消不对称冲突时代的一部分威胁。虚拟世界几乎没有游戏规则,也几乎没有评估对手意图和能力的办法,甚至没有能够确定你在打赢还是落败的真正线索。
Such murkiness is perfect for those keen to subvert the west’s military strength. China and Russia appear to understand this new world disorder far better than others — and are adept at turning the west’s own vulnerabilities against it.
这种混沌状态正合那些渴望颠覆西方军事实力的人的心意。中国和俄罗斯似乎远比其他人更了解这种新世界无序状态——并且擅长利用西方的脆弱性来做出对西方不利的事情。
Chinese strategists were among the first to map out this new terrain. In 1999 two officers in the People’s Liberation Army wrote Unrestricted Warfare in which they argued that the three indispensable “hardware elements of any war” — namely soldiers, weapons and a battlefield — had changed beyond recognition. Soldiers included hackers, financiers and terrorists. Their weapons could range from civilian aeroplanes to net browsers to computer viruses, while the battlefield would be “everywhere”.
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