There has been much discussion about the potential impact on the global economy of a Greek exit from the eurozone. Less debated is what effect a softening of Chinese demand, particularly for raw materials, could have on parts of the global economy.
关于希腊退出欧元区可能对全球经济产生何种影响,人们已经进行了不少的讨论。但人们较少讨论的是,中国需求(尤其是对原材料的需求)放缓可能对全球经济的某些部分产生何种影响。
A Chinese slowdown is likely to be less dramatic than a Greek exit. That is probably why no one has yet invented a silly term to match Grexit. (I’m offering “Chindown, as in “keeping one’s chin down.) Given the weight of China’s economy and its importance to some commodity exporters, perhaps rather more thought should be given to the topic. After all, unlike a Grexit, which no one wants, Beijing has actually announced its intention to engineer a Chindown. China’s five-year plan, which runs to 2015, talks specifically of weaning the economy off investment-led, commodity-hungry growth and easing the annual rate of growth down to 8 per cent from the double digits of recent years.
中国需求放缓可能没有希腊退出欧元区那么富有戏剧性。或许正因如此,才尚未有人创出一个可与“Grexit(希腊退出欧元区)匹敌的无聊词汇。(我这里给出一个词“Chindown(中国放缓),还有点“keeping one’s chin down(泄气)的意味。)鉴于中国经济的分量及其对某些大宗商品出口国的重要影响,或许我们应该给予这个话题更多的思考。毕竟,与任何人都不希望出现的“Grexit不同,中国政府实际上已经宣布它打算策动一个“Chindown。在截止于2015年的“十二五规划里,中国明确提出要摆脱以投资主导的、需要消耗大量大宗商品的经济增长模式,并将年度经济增长率从近几年的两位数降至8%。
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