国际劳工组织的报告还概述了今年下半年劳动力市场复苏的三种不同情景。
The baseline model projects a 4.9% decline in working hours, or 140 million job losses, compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. This scenario is assuming a rebound in economic activity according to existing forecasts, the lifting of workplace lockdown restrictions, in addition to a recovery in consumption and investment.
根据基线模型预测,与2019年第四季度相比,今年下半年全球工作时间将减少4.9%,相当于损失1.4亿个全职工作。这一设想是在假定经济活动根据现有预测出现复苏、解除工作场所封锁限制以及消费和投资复苏的前提下得出的。
A pessimistic scenario would see an estimated 11.9% fall in working hours, or 340 million job losses. This is based on there being a second wave of coronavirus cases, prompting the return of lockdown restrictions, therefore meaning a “significantly slow recovery.”
按照悲观的估计,全球工作时间将减少11.9%,相当于损失3.4亿个全职工作。这是基于出现第二波新冠疫情,促使封锁限制恢复,因而“恢复非常缓慢”的前提下得出的。
The optimistic model would work out to an estimated 1.2% decrease in working hours, or 34 million job cuts. This best-case scenario would be the result of workers’ activities resuming quickly, “significantly boosting aggregate demand and job creation.”
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