如今,这些支撑因素正被移除,考虑到美联储(Fed)早晚会加息,新兴世界未来或许还将面临更大的挤压。巴西等国家的增长模式已暴露于风险中。长期赤字、高通胀率和被高估的汇率,使得巴西别无选择,只能收紧货币政策、接受衰退。有利外部环境的消失,暴露出这些国家过去未能实施改革。有一两位新兴国家领导人,比如印度的纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)和印尼的佐科•维多多(Joko Widodo),进行了姗姗来迟的尝试——调整政府开支、减少浪费性补贴、增加有助提高生产率的投资,但这些尝试要想见效还需要时间。
The process of poor countries getting rich, much of which used to be driven by export-ledmanufacturing, has become more complex. Emerging economies are routinely turning awayfrom manufacturing at much lower levels of income than earlier waves of industrialisers. Anapparent structural fall in trade growth relative to overall expansion, probably as a result ofnations like China taking more of their supply chains in-country, means less chance for otherdeveloping countries to export their way to prosperity.
以往穷国主要靠出口导向的制造业实现富裕,如今这一过程变得更加复杂了。相对于前几波实现工业化的国家,新兴经济体如今常常在制造业收入降到低得多的水平时才放弃制造业。贸易增长相对于总体增长似乎发生了结构性下降——原因很可能是中国等国将供应链更多地转移到国内——意味着其他发展中国家通过出口实现繁荣的机会更小了。
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