Loosening credit standards is an odd way to deflatea credit bubble. But China’s credit market isparticularly scary because of its shadow bankingsystem. A change that lets banks lend more couldallow sunshine in.
用放松信贷标准来抑制信贷泡沫是一种怪异的做法。但中国的信贷市场因其影子银行体系而格外令人担忧。让银行增加放贷的政策转变可以让阳光照射进来。
Late on Wednesday, China’s State Council said that it plans to remove the upper limit onbanks’ loan to deposit ratio (LDR). Current rules stop banks from lending once loans reach 75per cent of the deposit base. Removal of this cap should mean more loans. But most estimatesfind that the system’s average LDR is between 66 and 72 per cent. So credit has notnecessarily been constrained by this policy alone. Slowing economic activity has crimpeddemand; loan quotas and banks’ risk aversion have capped supply.
周三晚些时候,中国国务院宣布,计划取消银行贷存比上限。现行规定禁止银行在贷款达到存款基础的75%时继续放贷。取消这一上限应该会意味着放贷增加。但多数评估发现,中国银行业平均贷存比处于66%至72%之间。因此,信贷未必只受到这一规定的约束。经济活动放缓减少了贷款需求;贷款额度和银行的避险心理则限制了贷款供应。
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