Assessing the cyclical versus secular/structural balance of these seven factors, it is hard notto conclude that gold may well be experiencing an erosion in its positioning as a core holdingin diversified institutional and retail investment portfolios. The more this happens, the moreenticing it will be for “fast money to short the metal as a way of inducing even greater sales bydisappointed core holders.
权衡这七个因素的周期性成分与长期结构性成分,很难不得出一个结论:黄金作为机构和散户多样化投资组合中核心资产的这一定位,很可能正在受到削弱。而越是如此,黄金就越能吸引“快钱来做空,从而引诱失望的核心持有者进一步抛售。
This situation is unlikely to change soon but it need not be terminal. A shift would probablyrequire a broader normalisation of financial markets, including a diminution in the direct andindirect role of central banks in determining asset prices and their correlations. Until thathappens, the glittering metal is likely to continue to languish.
这种情况不太可能很快改变,但它未必已成定局。要想出现转变,很可能需要金融市场全面正常化,包括降低央行在决定资产价格及资产价格相关性方面的直接和间接作用。在此之前,黄金这一闪闪发光的金属可能会继续疲软。
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