Will the Federal Reserve’s September meeting see USinterest rates go up for the first time since 2006?Officials have held out the prospect that it might, and have suggested that — barring majorunforeseen developments — rates will probably be increased by the end of the year. Conditionscould change, and the Fed has been careful to avoid outright commitments. But a reasonableassessment of current conditions suggest that raising rates in the near future would be aserious error that would threaten all three of the Fed’s major objectives — price stability, fullemployment and financial stability.
在美联储(Fed)今年9月的会议上,我们将看到美国利率自2006年以来的第一次上升吗?官员们坚称这种可能性是存在的,并暗示,除非发生重大的不可预知事件,否则今年年底前很可能加息。状况可能变化,美联储(Fed)一直小心翼翼地避免做出直截了当的承诺。但对当前状况作出的合理评估似乎表明,在最近的将来加息将是一个严重的错误,它将危及美联储的所有三大目标:物价稳定、充分就业和金融稳定。
Like most major central banks, the Fed has put its price stability objective into practice byadopting a 2 per cent inflation target. The biggest risk is that inflation will be lower than this— a risk that would be exacerbated by tightening policy. More than half the components of theconsumer price index have declined in the past six months — the first time this has happenedin more than a decade. CPI inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices anddifficult-to-measure housing, is less than 1 per cent. Market-based measures of expectationssuggest that, over the next 10 years, inflation will be well under 2 per cent. If the currencies ofChina and other emerging markets depreciate further, US inflation will be even moresubdued.
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