对于最近这次资产价格混乱将对新兴市场资产总共产生多大影响,要想得出确切结论显然还为时尚早,尤其是8月25日中国央行(PBoC)通过降息施加干预,在一定程度上帮助扭转了下跌趋势。但新兴市场之前的几次动荡以及最近的初步迹象都显示出,那些打好了政策基础的新兴市场或许能得到回报。
In the Asian and Russian crisis in 1997-1998, investors picked off countries one by one byshorting their currencies without differentiating much on the basis of their various currentaccount and debt positions. It was (and is) an issue of lingering resentment in South Koreathat first investors (and then the International Monetary Fund in its rescue lending) treated acurrency mismatch as though it had been a full-blown solvency crisis. Before the crisis, Koreahad a budget that was forecast to be in surplus, low internal and external sovereign debtrelative to GDP, a narrowing current account deficit and a fairly-valued or undervaluedexchange rate. Nonetheless, pressure on its currency because of borrowing abroad by itsbanks forced it into the arms of the IMF.
在1997年至1998年的亚洲与俄罗斯危机中,投资者对新兴市场国家不同的经常账户和债务状况几乎不加区分,一律做空它们的货币,逐个打垮了它们。韩国曾经(现在依然)对一个问题怨恨不已,那就是,先是投资者、后是提供救助贷款的国际货币基金组织(IMF)把一次货币错配当成一场全面偿付能力危机来对待。危机之前,韩国本来预计会有预算盈余、较低的对内和对外主权债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比、缩小的经常账户赤字以及估值公允或低估的汇率。然而,韩国的银行在国外借入资金对本国货币造成压力,迫使韩国任由IMF摆布。
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