So my first topic with respect to this, was not death, but obesity. It had become trendy to speak about the "obesity epidemic." And, along with my collaborator, James Fowler, we began to wonder whether obesity really was epidemic and could it spread from person to person like the four people I discussed earlier. So this is a slide of some of our initial results. It's 2,200 people in the year 2000. Every dot is a person. We make the dot size proportional to people's body size; so bigger dots are bigger people. In addition, if your body size, if your BMI, your body mass index, is above 30 -- if you're clinically obese -- we also colored the dots yellow. So, if you look at this image, right away you might be able to see that there are clusters of obese and non-obese people in the image. But the visual complexity is still very high. It's not obvious exactly what's going on. In addition, some questions are immediately raised: How much clustering is there? Is there more clustering than would be due to chance alone? How big are the clusters? How far do they reach? And, most importantly, what causes the clusters?
而我据此的第一个研究课题,不是死亡,而是肥胖症。突然间,讨论肥胖症变成了一个热门话题。我与同事James Fowler开始研讨肥胖症是否真的是一种流行病,是否可以从一个人传染到另一个人身上,就如我之前讨论的那四个人一样。 这里看到的是我们的初步研究结果。 这是2000年接受研究的2200人。每个圆点代表着一个人。圆点的大小和人的身形成正比。所以大的圆点代表身形大的人。除此之外,如果你的体重指数超过30的话,如果你被诊断有肥胖症,我们便把圆点涂成黄色。如果你这么大略地看看这张图的话,你也许可以看到肥胖的人和非肥胖的人有聚集的症状。但是这个视觉复杂性还是很高的,很难确切地说清其中的关联。除此之外,很多问题也立即产生。到底有多少聚集?所产生的聚集是不是要比单纯的巧合下所产生的聚集要多?聚集的大小是怎样?可以触及到多远?最重要的是,聚集的原因是什么?
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