我们将石油需求量的增加归因于以下三点。首先是人口。波斯湾和石油输出国成员国的人口增长十分快。小小的卡塔尔,其人口在2000-2010年间就增加了3倍。沙特阿拉伯人口从2000万增加到了2740万,上升了37%.相应的对于电力,水资源和石油的需求也增加了。一份查塔姆研究所智囊团的报告显示,在电力消耗高峰期空调的电力消耗量占据了总电力的一半之多。庆幸的是,沙特的电力生产力在过去的十年中得到了成倍的增强,缓减了这一恐慌。
The second relates to economic structure. It takes energy to produce energy: pumps mustbe powered and vast quantities of seawater desalinated. Aramco, the Saudi state oilcompany, sucks up nearly 10% of the country s energy output. Attempts to diversify theSaudi economy beyond oil, gas and petrochemicals have not gone far.
第二个涉及到的是经济结构。生产能源就需要消耗能源。油泵运行需要电力驱动和大量的脱盐海水。沙特阿美石油公司将近消耗了其出口石油量的百分之十。而力图使沙特经济结构多元化,而不是仅限于石油、天然气和石化产业的尝试却也始终收效甚微。
The third reason for rising Gulf consumption is the inefficiency of domestic energymarkets. Some 65% of Saudi electricity is generated using black gold, even as successiveprice shocks and the relative inefficiency of oil generation have seen it all but phased out inrich countries. Oil is used with such profligacy because domestic consumption is massivelysubsidised. According to the International Energy Agency, global oil subsidies added up to$192 billion in 2010. OPEC countries accounted for $121 billion of the total.
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