这给石油市场带来了很大的压力。短期来看,沙特地区的产油余力将会成为主导石油价格的一个重要因素。并且随着时间的推移,沙特国内石油需求量也会周期性的上升。根据巴克莱银行统计书卷显示去年 3月至7月的耗油量上升到了750000桶。这大多是空调装置过度使用的结果。并且,这还会给沙特维持石油出口量和维持油价稳定带来压力。
The longer-term picture is equally worrying. Global demand for oil is projected to rise toover 100m b/d by 2030. The Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq, which have vast andeasily accessible reserves, are regarded as the obvious sources of new supply. ButIranian oil production will decline as sanctions bite and the country loses access toequipment and expertise. Iraq, currently producing 3m b/d, has the reserves to increaseproduction significantly. But fragile politics, dodgy security and a battered oil infrastructureare deterring the investment required to boost supplies. And Saudi Arabia s thirst for its ownoil shows little sign of abating. The Gulf is usually seen as the answer to the world s oilproblems, but it looks ever more like a question-mark instead.
长远来看,前景也是十分的令人担忧。全球石油需求量到2030年预计会达到每天1亿桶。沙特阿拉伯,伊朗以及伊拉克等海湾国家的巨大的石油储备将会是最大的供应源。但是,对伊朗的国际制裁,会使其失去大量技术设备与专家组的支持,致使其石油产量下滑。近来产油量为每天300万桶的伊拉克虽具有足够的原油储量来大大提高其产量,可是其国内分崩离析的政治体系,不完善的安全体制,以及破败的石油基础设施将会大大影响其对海外投资的吸引力,从而影响到其产油量提高的进程。而沙特阿拉伯对石油的巨大内需,也使得局势更加的不稳定。我们都以为海湾地区的石油供给将会解决世界缺油难题,然而在现在看来,它反倒成了一个更令人担忧的问题。
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