时事资讯:看涨派不再看好美股前景_时事

时事资讯:看涨派不再看好美股前景

Other analysts are glummer about the near-term outlook.

Among them is Vinny Catalano, chief investment strategist at Blue Marble Research. After months in the bear camp, Mr. Catalano on March 5 published a piece on the Minyanville Web site titled 'Bears Out of Momentum,' in which he identified what he called 'the first signs of a cyclical bullish scenario.'

Like Mr. Grantham, Mr. Catalano now thinks stocks are slightly overvalued. He thinks the SP's fair value is closer to 945, based on earnings estimates and traditional P/E ratios, and could retreat to that point, or lower, in a hurry, possibly as soon as autumn.

The last time market indicators were flagging a market move this consistently, he says, was early March. Of some comfort to the bulls, Mr. Catalano doesn't expect a retest of the March lows; at most, he sees a correction of about 10%.

He has company from former newsletter publisher Peter Grandich. On March 6, Mr. Grandich, now the chief commentator for Canadian online investment community Agoracom, put out a note entitled 'Bye, Bye Permabear Camp -- It's Been Great!' After 18 months of 'feasting on bull meat,' he turned slightly more positive.

'I no longer believe it's worthy to sell rallies and one should now look to buy declines,' he wrote at the time.

Mr. Grandich now thinks the Dow is likely to stall roughly at 10500. While that would be a gain of about 10% from here, foreign markets offer more juice, he says, given that they have less of a debt overhang than the U.S. does.