金融时报：中国不再为世界经济遮风挡雨_时事

金融时报：中国不再为世界经济遮风挡雨

再想象一下，如果人民币没有大幅升值，结果又会怎样?世界其他地区的货币就不会贬值，许多国家的货币环境会比现在更加紧缩，结果是，全球通缩压力将会比实际情况严重得多。

So China has been the shock absorber for the global economy, a punch bag seemingly able to soak up the recessionary blows that would otherwise have derailed global growth.

所以说，中国充当了全球经济的减震器，像一个沙袋，似乎能够吸收那些本可能阻碍全球增长的衰退冲击。

Playing the punchbag role has, however, left the country’s economy vulnerable. One simple way to demonstrate this is via changes in consensus expectations for Chinese economic growth. Since 2010, initial growth expectations have simply been too high, a trend that has become worryingly entrenched as the renminbi has strengthened.

然而，扮演沙袋角色使中国经济变得脆弱。要证明这一点，一个简单方法是观察对中国经济增长的普遍预期的变化。自2010年以后，增长预期一开始就有点过高，而随着人民币走强，这一趋势变得稳固得令人担忧。

Unfortunately, China’s role as a “stabiliser” for the global economy has contributed to instability within the country itself: an overheated property market, a substantial increase in indebtedness, a roller-coaster ride for the stock market and a declining marginal rate of return on capital spending. So the People’s Bank of China’s actions in the second week of August — interpreted variously as either the beginnings of a major devaluation or a modest market-led adjustment — might be regarded instead as part of an attempt to shift the balance of risks away from China back to the rest of the world.