金融时报：中国不再为世界经济遮风挡雨_时事

金融时报：中国不再为世界经济遮风挡雨

This implies that the global economy may need a new shock absorber. Many have pinned their hopes on a sustained US recovery yet, to date, any acceleration in growth has been, to say the least, modest. Moreover, if the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates before the year is out, the US economy’s ability to act as a shock absorber may be compromised.

这意味着，全球经济可能需要一个新的减震器。许多人寄望于美国经济持续复苏，然而迄今为止，美国经济增长并未显著提速。此外，如果美联储(Fed)决定在年底前加息，美国经济充当减震器的能力可能打折扣。

The alternative is for the US dollar — rather than the economy — to play the role. China may not have intended to fire a shot across the Fed’s bows but the warning is clear: should the Fed choose to raise interest rates alongside a new “market-led” attitude from Beijing, the danger is that the dollar could climb into the stratosphere. Under those circumstances, we could see collapsing emerging market currencies, a currency-led tightening of US monetary conditions and an American recovery that all too quickly melts away. From a global perspective, it would make more sense for the Fed to leave monetary policy on hold.

另一种选择是让美元(而非美国经济)扮演这种角色。中国或许并非有意向美联储发出警告，但其中的警示意味却很明显：如果美联储选择加息，再加上北京方面的“市场导向”新态度，美元汇率很可能大幅攀升。在那种情况下，我们可能看到新兴市场货币崩溃，美国货币环境因汇率因素所致的紧缩，以及很快烟消云散的美国经济复苏。从全球角度来看，美联储保持货币政策不变更明智。

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