话虽如此,精明的投资者肯定会跟踪所有政治和经济事态,以求在外汇市场摸索出一条麻烦最少的道路。正如纽约梅隆银行(BNY Mellon)策略师西蒙?德里克(Simon Derrick)所言,2017年具备让1985年重演的所有特点:宽松财政政策、减税、美联储鹰派立场和美元汇率飙升。
“It was the pressure of US corporates that was brought to bear on Congress and subsequently the Reagan White House that led to the abandonment of a strong dollar policy,” says Mr Derrick.
德里克表示:“美国企业的压力影响了美国国会,后来也影响了里根主政的白宫,导致美国放弃了强势美元政策。”
Could there be a similar political backlash in Trump’s US? “Absolutely,” Mr Derrick says.
在特朗普主政时期,美国会否出现类似的政治反弹?德里克表示:“绝对会”。
This is by no means the only moment in 2017 when the realities of politics and economics will affect investment choices. The other, warns Mr Derrick, is China.
这绝非2017年唯一一个政治和经济现实将影响投资选择的时刻。德里克警告称,另一个是中国。
In November, the People’s Bank of China drained its reserves by $70bn and has consequently been reducing its holdings of US Treasuries to prevent the renminbi depreciating further. In the background stands Mr Trump, ready to repeat accusations that China has been deliberately weakening the renminbi for competitive gain.
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