不过,安永(Ernst and Young)的顾问没有被今年的市况所吓倒。他们预期明年IPO数量会有所增加,理由是股价上涨、股市波动性降低以及经济前景更加光明,都将刺激企业积极寻求上市,尤其是在下半年。
But that would happen only if potential buyers were to have confidence in what is on offer, and evidence from 2012 is mixed. The top 20 IPOs of the year are up by an average of 6 per cent since they floated, and within that group there are slightly more up (11) than down. But that performance is beaten by the 18 per cent improvement in the MSCI World index during the year. Even stripping out the Facebook debacle, the index has beaten the IPOs. Why invest in a risky flotation if the index will do better?
但只有在潜在买家对上市企业有信心时,上述预期才会变成现实。而2012年的迹象则让人喜忧参半。今年IPO融资额最高的20家公司,自发行以来的股价平均涨幅达到6%。其中,股价上涨的公司(11家)略多于股价下跌的公司。但这一表现远逊于今年摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数(MSCI World index)18%的涨幅。即便不把Facebook股价的大跌计算在内,MSCI全球指数依然完胜IPO市常既然该指数表现更出色,那又何必投资于充满风险的IPO呢?
Only, perhaps, if the sellers provide a convincing reason to do so. What is notable about 2012’s IPOs is that those sellers that had the most pressing reasons to get the deal away provided their buyers with the most attractive prices. Shares in Direct Line, which Royal Bank of Scotland was required to sell by the EU, are up 12 per cent since its IPO in October. Shares in Santander Mexico, floated in order to provide its Spanish parent with capital, are up by a third since its IPO. And shares in the largest four private equity-backed flotations are up by an average of 9 per cent. If that is not light at the end of the tunnel for IPO bankers, it is perhaps a sign of how to get there.
【Lex专栏:今年IPO市场表现欠佳】相关文章:
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